Fed Rate Hike and Bitcoin Reserve Bill Reshape US Crypto Landscape

Fed's First Rate Hike in Three Years Shakes, Then Steadies, Crypto Markets

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, its first hike in more than three years. The move pushed the median 2026 rate projection higher, with officials signaling room for another increase before year-end. Bitcoin briefly dropped toward $75,000 ahead of the announcement, spiked above $76,000 minutes after the decision, and settled near $76,150 by the close, essentially flat to modestly higher on the day. Ether followed a similar pattern, recovering to roughly $2,420. Crypto-linked equities fared worse than the tokens themselves: Circle shares fell more than 6%, Robinhood dropped over 5%, and Coinbase slid more than 4% as investors weighed a more hawkish rate path against risk assets broadly. Analysts noted the pattern echoes early 2022, when the Fed's first post-pandemic hike preceded a prolonged crypto drawdown, though several traders argued Bitcoin's ability to hold the $75,000–$76,000 range despite the hawkish surprise points to underlying market resilience rather than fragility.

House Committee Advances Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Legislation

Separately, the House Financial Services Committee voted 28-21 along party lines on September 16 to advance the American Reserve Modernization Act (H.R. 8957), sending the bill to the full House calendar. The legislation, introduced by Rep. Nicholas Begich and shepherded through committee by Chairman French Hill, would convert the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — currently an executive order signed by President Trump in March 2025 — into permanent federal statute. Under the bill, Bitcoin the government already holds through criminal and civil forfeiture, estimated at roughly 324,500 BTC worth about $24.7 billion, would move into Treasury custody under a minimum 20-year holding period. The measure also creates a separate Digital Asset Stockpile for non-Bitcoin holdings, mandates quarterly proof-of-reserve reporting backed by independent audits, and directs a study of budget-neutral ways to expand reserves, while explicitly barring new taxes, borrowing, or deficit spending to fund purchases. Some Democrats, including Rep. Bill Foster, opposed the bill over Bitcoin's volatility, while Republican sponsors framed it as a way to strengthen reserves without new spending.

What Comes Next for U.S. Crypto Policy

The bill still needs a full House floor vote and Senate passage before reaching the president's desk, and with lawmakers set to leave Washington after September 17 until after the midterm elections, a floor vote this month looks unlikely. The advance comes just a day after a separate regulatory setback: a Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act, which would have divided digital-asset oversight between the SEC and CFTC, fell short 49-50 on September 15. Together, the two developments capture the current state of U.S. crypto policy — incremental legislative progress on the reserve front, continued gridlock on market-structure rules, and a Bitcoin price that has so far absorbed both a hawkish Fed and legislative uncertainty without breaking down.